Will Sheikh Hasina physically return to Bangladesh from exile on or before 31 December 2026?
20%probability
as of 10 Nov 2026, 00:02 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
YES if Sheikh Hasina physically arrives in Bangladesh (any airport/land crossing) on or before 31 December 2026, as reported by a dated wire or Bangladeshi outlet. NO if she has not entered Bangladesh by 31 December 2026, including if she announces a further postponement or is prevented from travelling.
Probability history
1 recorded point
now 20% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 20%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
No branches — a single binary question.
Target
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