Will demolition of the Ak-Zhorgo garage cooperative in Bishkek's 12th microdistrict begin on or before 31 December 2026?
as of 10 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC ·no change
Resolves YES if
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31T23:59:59+06:00, a dated report (Kaktus.media, 24.kg, Kabar, AKIpress, or the Bishkek mayor's office) shows that municipal demolition of the Ak-Zhorgo consumer cooperative's garages in Bishkek's 12th microdistrict has physically begun (machinery on site removing boxes). Resolves NO if no demolition has begun by that deadline, or if a postponement/cancellation is announced before it. Silence alone does not resolve the question.
Probability history
2 recorded points
now 40% · no change
What changed
Real moves and re-assessments, newest first.
- 40%—
Probability updated.
Branches
Alternatives with their own deadline and condition.
- closes 28 Feb 2027 OpenWill the Bishkek mayor's office formally postpone the Ak-Zhorgo demolition so that no demolition occurs before 1 March 2027?
Resolves YES if, on or before 2027-03-01T00:00:00+06:00, a dated report or official statement shows the Ak-Zhorgo demolition was postponed (e.g. a mayoralty decision, a presidential/parliamentary instruction, or a court injunction) and no demolition of the cooperative's garages had begun by 2027-03-01. Resolves NO if demolition begins before 2027-03-01, or if no postponement is documented and no demolition occurs (that is silence, not a postponement).
35%probability- closes 31 May 2027 OpenWill the Ak-Zhorgo demolition begin between 1 March 2027 and 31 May 2027 — i.e. the owners' requested delay is granted, but only until spring?
Resolves YES if a dated report (Kaktus.media, 24.kg, Kabar, AKIpress, or the Bishkek mayor's office) shows municipal demolition machinery physically on the Ak-Zhorgo site in Bishkek's 12th microdistrict at some point after 2027-03-01T00:00:00+06:00 and on or before 2027-05-31T23:59:59+06:00. Resolves NO if no demolition has begun by 2027-05-31, or if the site is formally cancelled/redeveloped without demolition. Silence alone does not resolve the question.
30%probability
- closes 28 Feb 2027 OpenWill the Bishkek mayor's office formally postpone the Ak-Zhorgo demolition so that no demolition occurs before 1 March 2027?
Resolves YES if, on or before 2027-03-01T00:00:00+06:00, a dated report or official statement shows the Ak-Zhorgo demolition was postponed (e.g. a mayoralty decision, a presidential/parliamentary instruction, or a court injunction) and no demolition of the cooperative's garages had begun by 2027-03-01. Resolves NO if demolition begins before 2027-03-01, or if no postponement is documented and no demolition occurs (that is silence, not a postponement).
35%probability- closes 31 May 2027 OpenWill the Ak-Zhorgo demolition begin between 1 March 2027 and 31 May 2027 — i.e. the owners' requested delay is granted, but only until spring?
Resolves YES if a dated report (Kaktus.media, 24.kg, Kabar, AKIpress, or the Bishkek mayor's office) shows municipal demolition machinery physically on the Ak-Zhorgo site in Bishkek's 12th microdistrict at some point after 2027-03-01T00:00:00+06:00 and on or before 2027-05-31T23:59:59+06:00. Resolves NO if no demolition has begun by 2027-05-31, or if the site is formally cancelled/redeveloped without demolition. Silence alone does not resolve the question.
30%probability