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predictionInflation expectations declined slightly but remain high: 4.3% for one year and 3.4% for five years; overall, everything points to the Fed having to raise rates in December.@trueconstatementThe financial conditions index is at extremely comfortable levels, the financial stress index likewise, and the key rate can hardly be characterized as tight.@trueconstatementHourly wage growth accelerated slightly to 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y; weekly jobless claims were only 189 thousand, and the number of Americans on benefits was about 1.7 million — lows since 2023.@trueconstatementThe number of open vacancies rose to 7.5 million, and the ratio of vacancies to unemployed rose to 1.06.@trueconstatementThe unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.9%, and the employment-to-population ratio rose to 59.3% — all indicators improved by 0.1 percentage points over the month.@trueconstatementOver the last six months the economy created an average of 88 thousand jobs per month, which is not that much.@trueconstatementData for previous months was revised upward by 84 thousand.@trueconstatementUS job growth accelerated in October, adding 165 thousand jobs, of which 159 thousand were in the private sector.@trueconstatementOil and gas revenues in October turned out somewhat below expectations of ₽971 billion, which is due to large compensations under the damper and reverse excise tax (₽554.6 billion).@trueconpredictionRecently the inflow of revenue has become more significant than tax payments themselves, but companies will still have to pay less, so there may be a slight negative effect on the exchange rate; the systemic range of 80-85 rubles per dollar remains relevant.@trueconpredictionRevenue from oil prices will already come at high prices, so companies will have something to sell to pay taxes.@trueconpredictionIn November, the Ministry of Finance expects ₽391.2 billion in additional oil and gas revenues, but it overestimated revenues for September by -₽78.5 billion.МинфинаpredictionTaking into account the Bank of Russia's sales under mirroring (₽0.6 billion), net currency purchases will amount to ₽15 billion, versus ₽12.1 billion per day in October.МинфинаpredictionIn total, from November 9 to December 4, currency worth ₽312.6 billion will be purchased, or ₽15.6 billion per day.МинфинаstatementThe Ministry of Finance published data on currency purchases in November, and the figures are close to expectations: the volume of purchases will increase.МинфинаstatementThe average rate over the last 5 years was <2.5%, the real rate about -1.8%, which is far below estimates of the neutral real rate (R*), which in the eurozone are around 0-0.25% — in the dominant view policy remained extremely loose.post authorstatementAverage inflation in the eurozone over the last 5 years was 4.3%, and since K. Lagarde's arrival 3.5%, which is significantly above the 2% target; at its peak annual inflation reached 10.6%.post authorpredictionAt the ECB, by May there will be changes in key positions: chief economist (currently Philip Lane) and head of the markets department (Isabel Schnabel), i.e. a personnel deal on key positions is ahead.post authorallegationIn essence this is a departure for political reasons.post authorstatementFrance historically has dominant positions in influencing the choice of the ECB head, so a change of power there may have a strong influence on the appointment of the future head of the central bank.post author
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