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commitment두산은 최근 고객사의 LTA 체결 요구가 늘고 있으나 생산능력 운영과 가격 조건을 고려해 선별적으로 추진할 방침이다.하나증권 IT 김민경prediction10월 말부터 본격 가동된 중국 창수 신규 생산시설이 Nvidia 가속기 수요 중심으로 가동률이 빠르게 상승하고 있어 4분기에도 가이던스를 상회하는 실적을 기록할 가능성이 높다.하나증권 IT 김민경statement전자 BG의 4분기 매출 가이던스는 전분기와 유사한 수준인 8,146억원이다.하나증권 IT 김민경statement두산의 2026년 3분기 전자BG 매출은 8,020억원(YoY +82%, QoQ +19%), 영업이익 2,353억원(YoY +127%, QoQ +17%, OPM 30%)을 기록했다.하나증권 IT 김민경predictionIf the virtuous cycle is confirmed, slowing Capex could instead be the starting point for investment efficiency and FCF recovery, but if monetization of final demand is delayed, utilization, unit prices and OCF recovery will also be delayed and the timing of normalizing the AI investment cycle will be pushed back.하나 자산배분/해외크레딧 이영주predictionCorporate credit quality will diverge depending on whether a company can withstand the cash gap before FCF recovery; hyperscalers have room to absorb investment burdens, but neoclouds and lower-rated borrowers may be vulnerable to changes in refinancing conditions.하나 자산배분/해외크레딧 이영주predictionAs AI capital expenditure expands faster than OCF, 2027 is likely to be the period when major AI companies' FCF deficits are largest.하나 자산배분/해외크레딧 이영주predictionTariffs, supply chain reorganization, security investment and continued AI infrastructure investment may limit the downside for inflation and long-term interest rates, and defense, infrastructure and AI infrastructure financing together increase long-duration supply of government bonds, corporate bonds and project finance.하나 자산배분/해외크레딧 이영주predictionLiving cost burdens and anti-war public opinion may limit additional war budgets and the pace of escalation, but spending to respond to China and Russia, modernize weapons systems and protect strategic assets is expected to continue.하나 자산배분/해외크레딧 이영주predictionCompanies will expand to new regions and overseas in response to existing site costs and permitting burdens, and stronger grid connection screening, as seen in Texas ERCOT interconnection applications, can filter out speculative demand and allocate resources to necessary projects over the medium to long term.하나 자산배분/해외크레딧 이영주predictionThe focus of data center regulation is on expanding corporate cost-sharing, and regulatory intensity will differ by region.하나 자산배분/해외크레딧 이영주predictionThe market worries that political constraints on AI infrastructure investment will grow depending on the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections, but related policy is expected to move toward requiring corporate cost-sharing and securing resident acceptance.하나 자산배분/해외크레딧 이영주predictionDepartment store stocks are now worth buying and waiting: October existing-store growth was around 1%, November is expected around 2% YoY, and valuations of the three department stores are near all-time lows (Lotte Shopping 6.4x, Hyundai Department Store 4.7x, Shinsegae 4.6x 12MF PER), limiting further downside.하나증권 유통/화장품 박종대statementAll three ODM companies face a production capacity shortage, and the biggest beneficiary of the current situation is Pump Tech Korea, which can enjoy the industry boom through the normalization of its 4th plant, full operation of its 6th plant, and capacity expansion effects.하나증권 유통/화장품 박종대statementCosmax, known for aggressive sales, expanded outsourcing capacity relative to production growth even as 2025 exports rose 10% YoY, selecting about 10 key outsourcing partners and resolving QC issues considerably through production process management and training support.하나증권 유통/화장품 박종대statementKorea Kolmar's operating profit miss was due to weak revenue, increased fixed cost burden, and QoQ profitability decline; top 10 customers accounted for 58% of third-quarter revenue (YoY +3%p), concentrating on production for key clients.하나증권 유통/화장품 박종대statementCosmecca Korea's revenue grew 4x from 2021 to 2026, averaging 32% annual growth, exceeding Cosmax (CAGR 21%) and Korea Kolmar (CAGR 25%).하나증권 유통/화장품 박종대statementCosmecca Korea's revenue grew excessively; despite profitability decline, it focused on meeting customer delivery deadlines, and domestic revenue exceeded 200 billion won for the first time while OPM fell to the 11% range, showing willingness to expand business scale despite short-term profitability damage.하나증권 유통/화장품 박종대statementBoth Korea Kolmar and Cosmecca Korea missed third-quarter market operating profit expectations, but for different reasons.하나증권 유통/화장품 박종대predictionThe 2026 cosmetics market's key theme is ODM/container shortage, with container shortages in the first half and ODM production capacity shortages in the second half.하나증권 유통/화장품 박종대
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