Claims
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statementFrance historically has dominant positions in influencing the choice of the ECB head, so a change of power there may have a strong influence on the appointment of the future head of the central bank.post authorstatementThe dominant reason for the slightly earlier departure (official term 31 October 2027) is the elections in France in the spring, so as to manage to appoint a new ECB head before the elections.post authorstatementLagarde explained that the reason she is bringing forward her departure to February 2027 instead of October is that she wants freedom of speech, freedom of expression and freedom to participate in discussion of issues not related to monetary policy.ЛагардstatementThe head of the ECB, K. Lagarde, is leaving in February of next year, on 7 February 2027.post authorstatementOverall the situation is not changing much; local flights of subsidized mortgages do not change the general trend. Credit activity of the population has recovered but remains fairly restrained.post authorstatementAuto loans accelerated slightly — issuance of ₽190.7 billion (+6.4% m/m and -10.7% y/y); total issuance volumes remain at fairly high levels, and some acceleration before the increase in the recycling fee can most likely be seen, but overall, seasonally adjusted, everything has been flat here over the last 3 quarters.post authorstatementSeasonally adjusted, cash loan indicators point to gradual growth in lending, but without much acceleration.post authorstatementCash loan issuance is stable at ₽510.4 billion (-1.2% m/m and +50% y/y); the growth rate has stabilized around ~₽0.5 trillion per month.post authorstatementMarket mortgage remained at decent levels of about ₽190 billion per month, gradually narrowing the gap between the secondary and primary markets, though drivers here are expectations of a rate cut, elevated inflation and relatively low prices (relative to the primary market).post authorstatementAccording to Dom.RF estimates, subsidized mortgage issuance collapsed threefold to ₽117 billion.Дом.РФstatementMortgage issuance fell sharply to ₽308.8 billion (-49.2% m/m and -36.2% y/y); there was a strong surge before the tightening of subsidized mortgage terms, but in October everything went dark.post authorstatementPreliminary Frank RG data on retail lending for October recorded a sharp drop in issuance to ₽1.03 trillion (-22.1% m/m and -2.8% y/y), a reversal after the surge in subsidized mortgages.Frank RGstatementIn the US market there was a sharp crash: Nasdaq -6%, S&P -4%, starting with AI and Big Tech stocks, followed by margin calls, especially since margin positions and leverage were at maximums.post authorstatementGas prices in Europe reached $1200 per thousand cubic meters and then corrected to about $1050 on hopes that the Middle East situation would normalize, but gas withdrawal from storage has already begun.post authorstatementThe Dated Brent–Urals tax price spread (FOB before logistics) stabilized at $23–23.5 per barrel, with ESPO premiums offsetting Urals discounts.post authorstatementThe tax price of Urals fell to $82.5 per barrel by November 3, could have dropped to about $75 after the US elections, and averaged $101.5 per barrel in October.post authorstatementOn hopes of normalization with Iran, oil prices corrected to about $95–100 per barrel of Dated Brent, and by expiry the futures converged with spot.post authorstatementIran stated that a couple more tankers were blown up, and in total several dozen have already been lost.IranstatementJPM stated that by early November the market had shifted to a surplus.JPMallegationOil supplies from the Middle East fell sharply in October after September's drop due to attacks on tankers and pipelines.post author
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