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statementIn Uzbekistan, the economy grew 8.3% y/y in January–September 2026, with services contributing 4.2 p.p. and industry 2.0 p.p.; EABR forecasts 8.4% GDP growth in 2026.ЕАБРstatementIn Russia, GDP grew 0.6% y/y in January–September 2026, retail trade rose 5.0% y/y, and industrial output grew only 0.2% y/y as a 1.0% y/y rise in manufacturing was partly offset by a 1.3% y/y decline in mining.ЕАБРstatementThe National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic kept its policy rate at 12%, matching EABR forecasts, amid slowing inflation and persistent external price risks.ЕАБРpredictionEABR forecasts Kazakhstan's GDP growth at about 4.8% in 2026.ЕАБРstatementIn Kazakhstan, manufacturing output rose 8.6% y/y in January–September 2026 while industry overall grew 2.9% y/y, driven by machine building (+22.8% y/y) and food production (+13.8% y/y).ЕАБРstatementIn Belarus, real wages rose 7.4% y/y in September 2026 after 8.1% y/y in August, and unemployment fell to a historic low of 1.9% in Q3 from 2.1% in Q2.ЕАБРpredictionEABR forecasts Armenia's GDP to grow 6% in 2026 on domestic growth sources.ЕАБРstatementArmenia's economic activity grew 6.9% y/y in January–September 2026, after 7.3% y/y in January–August, with services and construction as the main growth sources.ЕАБРstatementThe main risk is distributional: a positive effect for the region as a whole does not mean an even distribution of benefits among countries.ЕАБРpredictionAlready in 2026–2028, according to conservative estimates, forced curtailment of renewable generation of 2.1–3.5 billion kWh per year is projected in Uzbekistan.ЕАБРcommitmentMore than 35 GW of variable generation is planned to be commissioned by 2035.ЕАБРstatementThe gross effect of integration in the deep integration scenario is up to $640 million per year, and the net effect (after costs) is $120 million per year.ЕАБРpredictionDigitalization, calculation of real transmission capacity and coordination of regimes can yield up to 6 billion kWh of additional trade per year without major construction.ЕАБРstatementThe region is physically connected but almost not commercially connected; mutual electricity trade in the ОЭС ЦА amounted to 12.1 billion kWh in 2024, noticeably below the level of mature markets.ЕАБРstatementThe key reserve of the Central Asia region lies not so much in building new capacity as in improving observability, manageability and the quality of joint planning of energy systems.ЕАБРstatementEDB analysts prepared a brief on how financing in national currencies is structured, who its drivers are and how to make its growth faster.ЕАБРstatementThe main channel of financing is SMEs: more than half of financing in national currencies goes to commercial banks for lending to small and medium-sized businesses.ЕАБРstatementOperations of multilateral development banks in national currencies have also grown actively in Georgia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.ЕАБРstatementKazakhstan remains the largest market.ЕАБРstatementThe EDB is one of the leaders, with more than $5.2 billion in national currencies and its share in the regional portfolio growing from 4% to 35%.ЕАБР
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