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title: "Taleb criticizes excessive confidence in the ability of statistical and mathematical models to… — THE TENGE — DecisionGateway"
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allegation

# **Taleb criticizes excessive confidence in the ability of statistical and mathematical models to predict the future, since the most significant economic shocks often arise beyond historically observed regularities.**

A allegation by THE TENGE. Statements are as reported by the cited publishers — not verified by DecisionGateway.

> *Талеб подвергает критике чрезмерную уверенность в способности статистических и математических моделей предсказывать будущее, поскольку наиболее значимые экономические потрясения зачастую возникают за пределами исторически наблюдаемых закономерностей.*

financekazPublished 2026-11-09 [ Read source](https://t.me/financekaz/21085)

## **Related claims**

[**Concepts of Nassim Taleb explain why even the most precise models can turn out to be useless in the face of large-scale shocks.**THE TENGE · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1ce56-5623-7efb-a8d3-16cd99ea7368) [**Taleb's main contribution to economic thought is rethinking the nature of uncertainty, the limits of traditional forecasting methods and the ability of economic systems to withstand unforeseen shocks.**THE TENGE · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1ce56-5670-73e7-935b-af45b45bfa6b) [**According to Taleb, violation of the skin-in-the-game principle creates an asymmetry of economic incentives in which some participants gain advantages from risky activity while shifting a significant part of adverse consequences onto other economic agents.**THE TENGE · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1ce56-5781-7d1f-8f02-af3a7d5211b0) [**Nassim Nicholas Taleb worked in financial markets for more than 20 years, specializing in derivatives trading, hedging nonlinear risks and developing investment strategies under high uncertainty.**THE TENGE · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1ce56-5649-75b4-8d15-8ab6688fe8c9) [**The concept of antifragility, presented by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book "Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder" (2012), is an approach to studying the ability of economic and financial systems not only to withstand external shocks but also to benefit from uncertainty, volatility and variability of the external environment.**THE TENGE · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1ce56-5746-74d6-b2f7-902a0e4392e2) [**The development of economic and financial systems is determined not only by stable regularities but also by rare, hard-to-predict events whose consequences can substantially change the established trajectory of development.**THE TENGE · statement](https://dgw.tmarket.io/claims/01a1ce56-56f6-7405-b89a-ae094867c31f)

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